UC Santa Barbara

Conference:	BW
Expected RPI:	127.0
Current RPI:	127
Expected SOS:	306
Current SOS:	306
Current Record:	21-9
Expected Record:	21-9
Current Conf Record:	12-6
Expected Conf Record:	12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-3
Current OOC Record:	9-3
Expected OOC Record:	9-3
Expected OOC RPI:	69
Expected OOC SOS:	271

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
21-9	127.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Santa Barbara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	North Dakota St. (210.0)	Sum	H	85-66	W	100%
11-15	Pittsburgh (217.0)	ACC	A	70-62	L	0%
11-17	Texas A&M (29.0)	SEC	A	84-65	L	0%
11-20	Pepperdine (317.0)	WCC	A	84-92	W	100%
11-21	Montana (76.0)	BSky	N	80-73	W	100%
11-24	Prairie View A&M (247.0)	SWAC	H	69-66	W	100%
11-28	San Francisco (139.0)	WCC	A	72-79	W	100%
12-2	San Diego (143.0)	WCC	H	67-57	W	100%
12-5	Nebraska Omaha (284.0)	Sum	H	77-70	W	100%
12-9	Montana St. (283.0)	BSky	A	69-91	W	100%
12-17	USC (34.0)	P12	A	98-87	L	0%
12-23	Sacramento St. (309.0)	BSky	A	72-82	W	100%
1-4	Cal Poly (305.0)	BW	A	80-79	L	0%
1-6	UC Riverside (300.0)	BW	H	65-57	W	100%
1-13	Hawaii (213.0)	BW	A	77-76	L	0%
1-17	Cal St. Fullerton (131.0)	BW	H	83-64	W	100%
1-20	UC Irvine (119.0)	BW	H	70-58	W	100%
1-25	Cal St. Fullerton (131.0)	BW	A	65-70	W	100%
1-27	UC Riverside (300.0)	BW	A	69-76	W	100%
2-1	Hawaii (213.0)	BW	H	84-82	W	100%
2-3	Cal St. Northridge (340.0)	BW	H	75-51	W	100%
2-8	UC Davis (102.0)	BW	A	81-90	W	100%
2-15	Long Beach St. (191.0)	BW	A	70-80	W	100%
2-17	UC Davis (102.0)	BW	H	54-71	L	0%
2-22	UC Irvine (119.0)	BW	A	69-49	L	0%
2-24	Cal St. Northridge (340.0)	BW	A	73-82	W	100%
3-1	Long Beach St. (191.0)	BW	H	69-70	L	0%
3-3	Cal Poly (305.0)	BW	H	86-61	W	100%
3-8	Cal Poly (305.0)	BW	N	75-53	W	100%
3-9	UC Irvine (119.0)	BW	N	58-61	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Santa Barbara's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

UC Santa Barbara's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against UC Santa Barbara.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
UC Santa Barbara	BW	26.49	26.49	73.57	73.57	12.49	12.49
UC Irvine	BW	6.00	6.00	46.67	46.67	-0.40	-0.40
Cal Poly	BW	5.87	5.87	23.08	23.08	-3.16	-3.16
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	4.47	4.47	66.67	66.67	1.49	1.49
UC Davis	BW	4.40	4.40	67.86	67.86	1.57	1.57
Long Beach St.	BW	4.35	4.35	41.38	41.38	-0.75	-0.75
UC Riverside	BW	4.34	4.34	25.93	25.93	-2.09	-2.09
Hawaii	BW	4.33	4.33	53.85	53.85	0.33	0.33
Cal St. Northridge	BW	4.28	4.28	15.38	15.38	-2.96	-2.96
Pepperdine	WCC	2.00	2.00	16.67	16.67	-1.33	-1.33
Montana	BSky	2.00	2.00	80.00	80.00	1.20	1.20
Sacramento St.	BSky	1.97	1.97	17.24	17.24	-1.29	-1.29
San Francisco	WCC	1.91	1.91	54.84	54.84	0.19	0.19
Montana St.	BSky	1.83	1.83	37.93	37.93	-0.44	-0.44
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	1.78	1.78	25.00	25.00	-0.89	-0.89
USC	P12	1.78	1.78	66.67	66.67	0.59	0.59
San Diego	WCC	1.77	1.77	58.62	58.62	0.31	0.31
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	1.75	1.75	46.88	46.88	-0.11	-0.11
North Dakota St.	Sum	1.75	1.75	42.86	42.86	-0.25	-0.25
Texas A&M	SEC	1.74	1.74	61.29	61.29	0.39	0.39
Pittsburgh	ACC	1.69	1.69	22.58	22.58	-0.93	-0.93
Pacific	WCC	0.36	0.36	41.94	41.94	-0.06	-0.06
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.35	0.35	84.85	84.85	0.24	0.24
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.34	0.34	33.33	33.33	-0.11	-0.11
California	P12	0.31	0.31	25.81	25.81	-0.15	-0.15
North Dakota	BSky	0.31	0.31	33.33	33.33	-0.10	-0.10
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.30	0.30	61.29	61.29	0.07	0.07
Santa Clara	WCC	0.30	0.30	34.48	34.48	-0.09	-0.09
Utah Valley	WAC	0.29	0.29	65.52	65.52	0.09	0.09
Idaho	BSky	0.27	0.27	68.97	68.97	0.10	0.10
Portland St.	BSky	0.25	0.25	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Portland	WCC	0.25	0.25	24.14	24.14	-0.13	-0.13
Stanford	P12	0.24	0.24	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.24	0.24	13.33	13.33	-0.18	-0.18
Idaho St.	BSky	0.23	0.23	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Fresno St.	MWC	0.23	0.23	63.33	63.33	0.06	0.06
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.22	0.22	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.22	0.22	80.00	80.00	0.13	0.13
Denver	Sum	0.22	0.22	46.43	46.43	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Utah	BSky	0.22	0.22	36.67	36.67	-0.06	-0.06
Nevada	MWC	0.22	0.22	79.41	79.41	0.13	0.13
BYU	WCC	0.19	0.19	70.59	70.59	0.08	0.08
Gonzaga	WCC	0.19	0.19	88.24	88.24	0.14	0.14
Oregon St.	P12	0.18	0.18	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.17	0.17	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.17	0.17	28.57	28.57	-0.07	-0.07
Arizona	P12	0.16	0.16	79.41	79.41	0.09	0.09
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.15	0.15	83.33	83.33	0.10	0.10
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.14	0.14	73.33	73.33	0.07	0.07
Weber St.	BSky	0.14	0.14	60.71	60.71	0.03	0.03
Washington	P12	0.14	0.14	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Utah	P12	0.13	0.13	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Arizona St.	P12	0.13	0.13	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
UCLA	P12	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Western Illinois	Sum	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Central Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
SMU	Amer	0.11	0.11	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Utah St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.10	0.10	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
Binghamton	AE	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.09	0.09	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
UT Arlington	SB	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Louisville	ACC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Rider	MAAC	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	A10	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
George Mason	A10	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
LSU	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
TCU	B12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
North Texas	CUSA	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
San Jose St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UNLV	MWC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.02	0.02	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01